Energy Facts — Volkswagen Lupo I

14 Июн 2015 | Author: | Комментарии к записи Energy Facts — Volkswagen Lupo I отключены
Volkswagen Lupo I

Energy: fast facts for an nation: oil, dollars, and CO 2

I am a research scientist and I have considering buying a new car. nominally overeducated, fascinated by and a compulsive researcher I set out to understand the and cons of different new fuel (gasoline, ethanol, bio-diesel, with respect to cost and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. As my proceeded I discovered a quantitative connecting car and fuel choices to the US deficit and jobs, national oil industry subsidies, national global warming, and democracy. moved by my discoveries I decided to a quantitative summary that these themes together for a audience. An engineer would this summary a back of the calculation. The numbers I provide in summary are representative of the overall of quantities discussed; they from year to year and the price of oil and reference source. My and purpose is on principles, ideas and the big and the details. As I use many numbers to the theme the reading can be tedious to readers and I present “Factoid” between sections in this horror story.

FACTOIDS . for thought to keep the reader

The average American car and driver 5 tons of CO 2 /yr: 5 tons one football field 20 inches in CO 2 every year. A Hummer 10 tons.

Total annual US CO 2 from all personal vehicles an area the size of Nevada or 7 ft deep in CO 2 emissions. Maryland to the of a 5 floor building,

Hidden and oil industry subsidies, $700 $800B, are in the same order of as the average annual increase of debt during the 2000-2005 frame or about $450-600/yr, the deficit $776B (projected and larger than the Pentagon in the range of $420-440B.

One 500 watt light burning 12 hours a all year produces (conservatively) 3 of CO 2 /yr w hen powered by coal fired

I). Setting up the big picture . US energy, US personal vehicles, CO 2

In this various numbers regarding US energy consumption are put together. to the data used are provided as web when not provided they can be found by Google search relevant keywords. The abbreviations lbs=pounds, brrl=barrels, M=million=10 6. 9. T=Trillion=10 13 are used.

Trade oil and jobs . In 2002 energy were about 24% of the US trade $483 B. Currently (08/06) the deficit is running at a rate will make it about for 2006. The largest contributor to the US deficit is oil. Primary US by fuel is about 40% oil, 24% gas, 23% coal. About of total energy is used to oil into various products diesel etc.). The numbers I given are from 2004 – a very good Lets study oil as it impacts the 1) deficit, jobs and national 2) people’s pocketbooks 3) CO 2 emissions and warming 4) is heavily subsidized and 5) is easily affected by the average by car and fuel shopping choices.

US Oil and Exxon profits . Oil is consumed by the US at a of about 20M barrels/day = 7.3B up from 15M/day in 1983. At this is $1.3 B/day = To put the $474 in comparative context: last 12 months revenues, as of were $384B. About 60% of the 12M barrels/day [], is imported, say $284B/yr at $65/barrel. Oil imports to have increased to 36% of the projected trade deficit.

DOE (Dept. of estimates that every $1B in deficit costs the US 27,000 NDCF (National Defense Foundation) has an estimate that US has 800,000 jobs due to dependence on oil. [Google: cost of oil at

Applying the DOE figure suggests the $284B current cost of oil ($65/barrel) is costing about 7M US Regarding the loss of jobs, the of people living in poverty, to government statistics, is now about people, up 17% since 2000 crude oil was under $20/brrl.

US Oil and CO 2 . The primary associated with warming is carbon dioxide, CO 2 for a global warming Burning oil at the current US rate of 20M is equivalent to filling Connecticut 3 deep with oil and lighting it on once a year. This can be to have an environmental impact if repeated every year. 7.3B brrl/yr of oil produces 3B tons of CO 2 /yr about 50% of the total 6B emitted by the US in 2005 ( figure does not include the CO 2 by refining oil.) The rest of US CO 2 are due, primarily, to natural gas and US CO 2 emissions are growing at some [Google: inventory green gasses]. The well figure, that approximately 20 lbs of CO 2 are for every gallon of oil (or gasoline) has been used.

Oil and CO 2 costs of US passenger vehicles . Of the 20 M of oil consumed in the US about 43% is refined gasoline, 24% into diesel, 10% jet fuel and other small Thus total personal vehicles consume about 9M = 3.3B barrels/yr. At $65/brrl fueling a personal vehicle the US $213 B/yr and creates tons of CO 2 /yr, about 22% or 1/5 th of the total US CO 2 emissions. Lets it personal.

Your vehicle’s and CO 2 costs . The average fuel of the average American’s personal (passenger cars, SUVs, imports included) is 21mpg, the that is was 20 years ago. As a the average car driven 10,000m/yr (a low at 21 mpg costs $1430 for fuel (at the cost of $3/g) and produces to 5 tons of CO 2 /yr. A Toyota Cruiser SUV produces 7 tons of CO 2 a Hummer 10 tons CO 2 /yr. 5 tons CO 2 /yr the American gasoline automobile, is at this time, a method of transportation. The average gasoline car is also very only about 15-20% of in fuel is converted into In comparison electric vehicles efficiencies on the order of 85% and diesels in the 40-50%.


Every gallon of oil (gasoline, you burn produces about 20 lbs of CO 2 .

The American car, at 21mpg, 5 tons of CO 2 /yr. At about m 3 one ton of pure CO 2 occupies a volume 25 ft on a side or 4 inches deep of a field (without end zones). tons of CO 2 fills a football 20 inches deep of CO 2 . A Hummer’s CO 2 emissions would waist on a football field.

Total CO 2 emissions of personal vehicles will fill a land the size of Nevada or Colorado sq miles) to 7 ft deep in CO 2 emissions; to 12 feet deep, Maryland to the of a 5 floor building, Connecticut to the of a 12 floor building.

Every of electricity you use from a coal plant produces between lbs of CO 2 . Thus very $100 you on home electricity from at $0.08/kWhr, is conservatively one ton of CO 2 . (I have the lower 1.64 figure).

You suffocate if you breathe only CO 2 and the CO 2 in the atmosphere the hotter the planet and the more unpredictable the weather.

Oil . The US consumes 20M brrls/d: 9M brrls/day for vehicles, 5M brrls/day for diesel Of the 20M about 12M barrels/day are imported. In US consumption was 15.2M brrls/day.

deficit summary . Energy about 24% of the 2002 trade is now 36% of a trade deficit of a projected in 2006 or $284B (at $65/brrl). to a DOE estimate the $284 oil deficit suggests a loss of 7M jobs. If the DOE is even half right appears cause for concern.

CO 2 . The US emits a total of 6B tons of CO 2 This about 25% of the worlds CO 2 for about 5% of the world’s population. 3B are due to burning of oil and its products. One average car produces 5 tons CO 2 /yr. All passenger cars produce 1.3B tons of CO 2 /yr.

does it mean . The average car is very inefficient and a major of CO 2 emissions. The US is sending money for foreign oil at a rate that is the order of magnitude as the national

FACTOID BREAK . Global is real. From Hanson.

The has a 2003 study called “An Climate Change Scenario and its for US National Security”. In it possibilities and starting as early as 2010 of a destabilized global ecosystem due to a climate change scenario are The report was suppressed by Bush it was leaked to The Observer in the UK.

Firms profits are affected by it are concerned. oil has raised its ocean platforms six higher above ocean as a of more extreme weather and the higher sea levels that global warming.

Insurance are concerned that human climate change may bankrupt the [Google: UNEP The Statement of Commitment by the Insurance Industry].

One 500 highway light burning 12 a night all year produces 3 tons of CO 2 /yr w hen powered by coal electricity. My highways exit, in Fe (8 lights on each of 4 ramps), about 75 tons CO 2 /yr. anyone besides CEO’s of or power companies need all lights.

II). Fuel economy . side strategies and efficiencies

I now clear the possibilities and consequences of the fuel economy of passenger within the context of the oil based transportation model.

Increasing according to the 1985 goal of the “Energy Policy Conservation . What would happen if the American passenger car could its mileage a modest 30% to 28 mpg and meet the CAFE (Corporate Average Economy) standard. Note SUVs and Hummers and vehicles 8,500 lbs do not have to meet CAFE EPCA standard of and they are included in the figure for the American passenger car. At 28 mpg would reduce fuels $350/yr/vehicle, or 25% to $1055/yr. In addition CO 2 would be reduced by 25% to 3.5 tons CO 2 /yr per Those are the sizable consequences of passenger car fuel economy by a 7mpg. A good discussion on how US have continuously stalemated CAFE standards by litigation is by Richard Byrne

the US would consume 0.8B/yr less and pay $160B/yr rather $213B for gas for a net savings of $50B/yr. By Exxon’s profits (not were $36B in 2005. A 0.8B brrls/yr less also reduce the reliance on oil by about 17%.

A modest brrls/yr less since would add to a total savings of 16B over that 20 year period. 16B barrels is about 1.6 as much as what oil company’s are the government to obtain by drilling the Artic National Wildlife Total US personal vehicle CO 2 would be reduced by 25% to 1B tons/yr. the 20 years since 1985 had a chance to reduce US CO 2 emissions by 6B in the atmosphere by simply enforcing the of the 1985 CAFE law.

How to US CAFE for all personal vehicles to the guideline . How can the US increase fuel to accomplish this modest Clearly the US car companies have not interested in this: they been litigating against it for 20 and appear currently too busy major amounts of red ink. It not be difficult to achieve this economy increase if the US had access to sold in Europe. The VW Lupo gets 90 mpg; the Audi A2 87 mpg; the Opel ECO speedster 92 The Honda Accord 2.2 i-CTDI sold in the UK since 2004, 90 mpg. About 50% of the cars in Europe are diesel; in the European car market it is about 85%. It simple, in principle, to bring the average fuel economy up by only one about five would have to buy such a

FACTOID BREAK . automobile

To give a comparison to the 21mpg of the US car: in 1908 the Ford T is reported as having gotten 25 It could run on gasoline or ethanol.

engines are more efficient gasoline and easily get hybrid mileage.

The Volkswagen chairman drove to a VW stockholders meeting in Germany in a diesel car that got 310

The national government appears to be a US “addiction to oil” and subsidizing the profits of AMG-GM on high margin Hummers. The tax break for a on a Hummer has been reported to be as $90,000. As of 2004 it was estimated the Hummer tax subsidies have the US treasury $1.3B. The American appears to be buying Hummers. hummers tax breaks].

Consequences of fossil fuel car efficiency to . A large jump in personal fuel economy, along the of a Toyota Prius or the European would decrease what the US for oil for transportation from $213B/yr to this is a $151B drop of very casually say 30% is taxes. Oil revenues would decrease and taxes $50B.

If you had such a diesel car your gasoline would be a mere $430/yr (at and 70 mpg) and not $1430/yr, some less per year. Not a small sum for those with the median US of about $45,000 or less. vehicle annual CO 2 emissions drop 70% from 5 tons/yr to 1.4 Nationally personal vehicle CO 2 would drop 70% to 0.4B reducing overall total US CO 2 from 6B to 5B tons/yr. Americans pay $62B/yr for fuel and not $213B/yr a of $151B/yr in revenues for the oil industry and

Comment on replacing diesel with bio-diesel . This has a discussion primarily on personal and gasoline engines only. If modes of transportation (truck, boat) ran solely on B100 made in the US (which can be done current engines without then 1) 5M brrls/day or 41% of imported oil be eliminated and 2) loss of jobs due to oil would be reduced 3.2M (using that DOE estimate) and 3) US CO 2 emissions would be reduced 13% to tons/year. The bio-diesel industry has a potential for growth: In 2005 net was 90M gallons or 6,000brrls/day. In comparison is consumed at about 5Mbrrls/day – a of 1000 based on the current consumption. This factor not include a possible shift of vehicles to diesel. Honda has and intention to market a passenger in the US; VW, which has stopped selling for 2007, is apparently retooling for the after.

FACTOIDS . fuel for thought and fuels

The total annual CO 2 of all diesel vehicles in the US will a land area the size of (about 60,000 sq miles) to 7 ft in CO 2 emissions, every year; to 3 stories deep in CO 2.

Amount of you get per unit of energy expended to grow, process, transport and typical fuels are: diesel=0.84, corn ethanol=1.3, 2.2. These figures are in the media, net energy balances and are several versions of these The low figure for gasoline is due the energy and distribution costs for ships, refineries, pipelines. The estimate for does not include US military Cellulosic ethanol is still but estimates are coming in at 2-3.

and bio diesel are in principle carbon they consume about as CO 2 as they produce. In current this is not true as fossil are still used somewhere in growing, harvesting and especially by diesel truck. Ideally diesels would use bio-diesel. In oil is pipelined in and then distributed by truck.

To add a somewhat positive of information to these little of efficiency the average fleet in 2004 of new passenger cars in the US is to have increased to about The same figure for France is a 46mpg. Consider also over about the last 30 period average fuel of French cars has increased by than 20% to around 6.5 l/100km, or 43

More positive news: the attorney general is going to sue the for global warming.

CAFE of 28 mpg . Increasing the average US fuel of personal vehicles only to a mere 28 mpg 1) reduces oil consumption by 22% or 2M barrels/day, produces a $50 B/yr savings 2) reduces by 17% foreign oil 3) reduces loss of jobs due to oil by about 1.3M jobs that DOE figure at $65/brrl) and 4) US CO 2 emissions by 300M tons/year (5% of of US CO 2 emissions). For the individual this 1) reduce fuels costs by 25% or about $350/yr/vehicle and 2) reduce CO 2 by 25% to 3.5 tons CO 2 /yr.

CAFE of 60 mpg . Increasing the average US fuel of personal vehicles to 60 mpg (of say a European 1) reduces oil consumption by cars 65% 9M brrls/day to 3.2M brrls/day $150 B/yr US savings (at 2) reduces by 50% foreign oil imports, 3) loss of jobs due to importing oil by 3.8M jobs (using DOE and 5) reduces US personal vehicle CO 2 by 65% from 1.3 B tons/yr to 0.46 B The overall total US CO 2 emissions be reduced 15% from 6B to 5.1 B tons/yr. The gasoline bill would be (at $3/g and 70 mpg) some less per year per car. vehicle annual CO 2 emissions drop 70% from 5 tons/yr to 1.4

What does it mean . fuel economy to European or Prius class standards and all diesels on bio-diesel comes to reducing any dependence on foreign oil at US production and consumption rates. If one an engineer and had to design an energy from scratch for the US, given the net balance and automotive efficiency, oil and the combustion engine would not be a contender for an energy efficient sector.

III). Oil revenues . debt, oil industry subsidy, gap

In my inquiry I discovered various facts about the economics of oil and how may be related to various socio-economic in the US.

Rhetorical question . Why doesn’t the US cars with European economies. The answer one might given the potential $151B in revenues, that private interests and CEO’s not public run the nation. It will be hard to the various lobbying machinations resist the inevitable US move an oil based economy. The US automaker quite effectively, though not litigated against increasing economy for 20 years (see by Union of Concerned Scientists Here is an example of what lobbying and automotive inefficiencies can the Exxon chairman, Lee Raymond, a $400M and perks retirement His 2005 salary was $144,000/day. the US has 1) the largest wealth gap between the and poorest, 2) the highest poverty (12%), 3) the most people in per capita and 4) by far the most children up in poverty of any developed nations.

FACTOID BREAK . income related facts

Congress has not the minimum wage in 8 years. In the 8 years it has raised its own salary 8 One might speculate that for minimum wage employers are stronger than lobbies for wage earners.

Number of living in poverty is up 5.4M or 17% 31.6 M in 2000: 37M people with jobs – thus to employment statistics) live in in the US.

Child poverty rates, or after tax subsidy and transfers, are in the US than any other “developed” US:21%. Average of 16 developed 10%. Scandinavia: 3.2%.].

The average middle family’s income has fallen years in a row since Bush office in 2000. [see

On average the average CEO currently 431 times what the average makes. Exxon’s CEO is much In 2003 the number was 300. In it was 42. [Google: CEO pay gap to study this].

Oil in the context of national debt . To put $151B drop in oil revenues in the spending perspective: the current of the Iraq war, as many argue a war for oil and accompanying corporate [see], costs $96B/yr at a reported $8B/month]. Tax receipts on the $213B, loosely 30%, go from to $18B/yr, a drop of some One might speculate, that national debt increasing at high rates, a tax revenue of $46B/yr, which pays for half of the Iraq operation, is US debt is estimated to be rising at $1.70B/day ( A private comparison might be the total tax 18 rich American families the estate tax laws (WalMart, MM, Soup, Gallo etc) may if successful. A savings of $71B is — a good portion of the cost of the continued Iraq

All peanuts compared to the national currently estimated for 2006 to be up 51% from $5.6T when took office in 2000. appears likely increase 57% of GDP in 2000 to 77% of GDP sometime in 2007. In the period the national debt has 51% the economy (GDP) has grown Annualizing those growth the national debt is growing at 8%/yr, the economy (GDP) at 3%. The debt will surpass the GDP by if this continues. As they say in the literature, it appears the US is burying generations in debt.

FACTOID . the national debt

Every man and child currently starts with a debt of about up 40% from about $20,000 in

Volkswagen Lupo I

The US has gone from the 40 th most laden country in the world to the 20 th. This is using the measure of as a % of GDP amongst 114 countries [Google: cia fact book].

Various of government accounting machinations the deficit in the range of $620B/yr. higher figure includes the Security collections the government for current costs and does not to be setting aside for payments to retirees.

The recent “official” figure, a month before the elections, is half the size I above. I have used the figure working from the debt increase from

Where does all the US debt from . The following figures to some useful speculations. contracts in 2005 are up 86% since Federal spending on Halliburton contracts are up 600% in that time ( Halliburton’s are up 380% since 2000 current revenues of $22B a 50% in revenues since 2000. studies can be done of Lockheed Compare this to the proposed Pentagon budget of $443B (up 63% $270B in 2000). The Pentagon it appears, does not include the of the continuing Afghanistan and Iraq Iraq has so far cost $295B (estimated originally by the White to cost $50B). The economy has in that same time by 12% or about 3% annualized. I am reminded of the “Let us all be happy and live our means even if we have to money to do it” — Artemus (1872).

FACTOID BREAK . war profiteering and humorous quotes

at the largest defense contractors received a 200% increase in since the 9/11 terrorist compared to a 7% increase for chief at other large companies. CEO compensation and war profiteering].

Halliburton in Iraq pays a national about $6/day and the US taxpayer $50/day. [See].

During 2001-2005 Cheney has apparently received in the range of $160,00-210,000 per year Halliburton. Cheney is on record for said he has severed all ties Halliburton. [See].

“No one in world has ever lost by underestimating the intelligence of the great of the [American] people. Nor has anyone has lost public office H. L. Mencken (1940’s).

Bush Abraham Lincoln: “You can some of the people all the time and are the ones you have to concentrate on” Washington Gridiron dinner).

Tax for the oil industry . It has been, historically, the of governmental tax subsidies to help new technologies or to support essential against market swings. Oil is a and a very high profit industry; why does the US subsidize Exxon has a return on equity of return on assets of 20%, a revenue growth of 12%, and a earnings growth of 35% [see Hardly the sign of an industry subsidy. There are fuel and economy alternatives that are competitive with gasoline are expected to create jobs require technological development and until economies of scale can be These are not subsidized even a of the oil industry rate. Various have estimated oil industry tax to be about $5-$15 a gallon of [see or]. assume the lower number and do an conservative estimate: at $5 tax subsidy per of gasoline the $3.3B barrels/yr the taxpayer $700B/yr. A more estimate by National Defense Foundation [Google: is $790B. Compare, say $800B in oil to the proposed Pentagon budget of the estimated 2006 trade of $776B and the current annual in national debt by $450-620B/yr. If the figure were double at eliminating subsidies would be debt load decrease and start impacting the national Compare the $800B in oil subsidies to the proposed for K-12 grade or the $2B for reduction of reliance on foreign oil See Hanson, “Energy Shift” for subsidy itemization.

But interesting is that the tax subsidy to the oil whether $700B or $790B, it is larger than $474 that is paid for oil even at the $65/barrel. I speculate how long a can remain internationally competitive or solvent with an overhead of such magnitude. There are and environmentally useful alternatives.

debt summary . Debt is on average over the 2000-5 frame about $450-620B/yr on how one accounts Social Security Since the last year was a budget surplus (1999), has increased at 8%/yr and the economy has at 3%.

Oil subsidy summary . Hidden and subsidies to the oil industry, estimated at — $800B/yr, are sizably than what the US pays for about $474 B/yr (at Larger than 2000-2005 annual increase of national of about $450B/yr, much than the Pentagon budget, and the same size as the projected trade deficit, $776B. And larger than the $2B budgeted in for the reduction of reliance on foreign

Oil subsidy summary . With debt load increasing on the $450-620B/yr and oil subsidies about if one were a conspiracy aficionado, it like the national debt is the oil industry profits. Or to put it differently and somewhat simplistically) one could national debt and eliminate the by eliminating oil industry subsidies.


There are four reasons to reduce or (even eliminate fossil fuels your energy diet: 1) the US trade deficit and associated 2) the national security issue of reliance on foreign oil, 3) CO 2 and its contribution to global warming, 4) yourself money.

What did I do ? my research I have concluded my environmental values and hard evidence are not represented by the national whose choices appear by corporate interests. [It appears Hummer tax breaks have even better and the national appears more corrupt I recall it ever being]. are some very positive with the actions state are taking and the US Mayors Climate Agreement is a very exciting grass roots effort. to your mayor, governor, and congressman, I am sure with repetition the various levels of will move in the direction with innovation, change and evidence and engineering merit. To H L Mencken: “If a politician found he had among his constituents, he would them missionaries for dinner.” it appears to me, in a system where not public interests determine of the policy, the only real for change lies at the grass level. I am reducing all my fossil intake with the intention to them all together starting domestic hot water, space and then electricity. It is not at all difficult if you are to a little research and critical

Here is what I did: I a lot of highway miles and only city miles for which appear more appropriate. I electric cars but currently (the primary source of is 1) inefficient about (20-30%) and 2) very polluting (mercury), 3) a lot of CO 2 (1.6-2.13 lbs/kWhr), 4) leads to a of energy and bloated CEO salaries, 5) has unimaginable environmental and social in the Appalachians.

I have installed a retrofit kit in my current Saturn at] to use even 100% To a reasonable percentage ethanol is an product, has a positive net energy and (in principle) is carbon neutral and locally available [see I hope in time that the trucks that transport use 100% bio-diesel and that the efficient cellulosic ethanol available. I hope in time American farmers will more coops rather let Cargill and Archer Midland with their very environmental records and reliance on fuels, dominate production and At this time my ethanol from a farmers coop in the state. The retrofit kit cost me $400 and will allow me to a new car purchase. With the ethanol kit I join a grass roots now gathering momentum to reduce 1) US deficit 2) reliance on foreign and 3) CO 2 . I won’t save myself any until the high mileage European style diesels hybrid diesel) are brought to the US for me to to B100 (100%) bio-diesel in the US. This appears to be likely to be a VW or diesel in the next few years the PR I have seen.

J R Ristorcelli, Oct 30,


Google: Facts can be by Google search with key words.

Hightower, J. P. “Hightower Lowdown” newsletter.

B. (2004). “Energy power

Tickell, Josh (2006). America”.

Scheckel, Paul “The Home Energy

FACTOID ADDENDUM . National Wildlife Refuge, drilling lands

The exploitation the NAWR yield less than 2 of oil (10.3B barrels) at current US rates. In contrast increasing vehicle average mileage by (to use the example above) would us drilling the NAWR and attendant in 13 years. It will take longer than that to get the oil out of the

Had the 1985 CAFE been (as intended) the 7mpg increase have saved 0.8B since 1985 for a total of 16B barrels: about 1.6 times the National Artic Wildlife

Burning the oil obtained by drilling the will produce 4B tons of CO 2 .

The of the Interior is taking steps to increase, even further, production from our federal in an environmentally sound manner”. ask Lin and Tweeti Blancett of the six generation acre Blancett ranch NM about “environmental sound Fly over the Colorado’s Roan and you will see what an “environmental manner” means. Or Wyoming’s Red Or Utah’s canyon country.

to the Inventory of Oil and Gas on Federal Lands released in 2003, the Rocky Region is considered to have the untapped onshore natural gas in the country. The estimates of 138 trillion feet of natural gas on Federal in the Interior West is sufficient to all of the 55 million homes that use gas in the United States for 39 years.” is of course misleading: the US consumes gas at a of about 22Tcf/yr (in 2005) and the about will supply the US for six at current consumption rates of commercial and residential combined.

is nothing environmentally sound natural gas either: per million of energy it produces 117 lbs CO 2 while and oil about 160 lbs. Natural gas is 30% less global warming oil. It has not business being a clean fuel for the CO 2 standpoint.

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