IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group III Chapter 5 — Volkswagen Transp

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IPCC Fourth Assessment Working Group III: 5

Transport and its Infrastructure

This should be cited as:

Kahn S. S. Kobayashi, M. Beuthe, J. Gasca, D. D. S. Lee, Y. Muromachi, P. J. Newton, S. D. Sperling, R. Wit, P. J. Zhou, Transport and its infrastructure. In Climate 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Group III to the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. (eds)], Cambridge University Cambridge, United Kingdom and New NY, USA.

Executive Summary

activity, a key component of economic and human welfare, is increasing the world as economies grow. For policymakers, the most pressing associated with this transport activity are traffic and injuries, congestion, air pollution and dependence. These problems are acute in the most rapidly economies of the developing world. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can its place among these transport priorities by emphasizing and co-benefits (high agreement, evidence).

Transport predominantly on a single fossil resource, that supplies 95% of the total used by world transport. In transport was responsible for 23% of world GHG emissions with about quarters coming from vehicles. Over the past transport’s GHG emissions have at a faster rate than any energy using sector agreement, much evidence).

activity will continue to in the future as economic growth transport demand and the availability of drives development, by facilitating and trade. The majority of the world’s still does not have to personal vehicles and many do not access to any form of motorized However, this situation is changing.

Freight transport has growing even more than passenger transport and is to continue to do so in the future. Urban movements are predominantly by truck, international freight is dominated by shipping.The modal distribution of freight varies greatly regions. For example, in the United all modes participate substantially, in Europe, trucking has a higher share (in tkm [1] ), compared to rail agreement, much evidence).

Transport activity is expected to robustly over the next decades. Unless there is a shift away from patterns of energy use, transport energy use is projected to at the rate of about 2% per year, the highest rates of growth in the economies, and total transport use and carbon emissions is projected to be 80% higher than current by 2030 (medium agreement, evidence).

There is an ongoing about whether the world is a peak in conventional oil production will require a significant and transition to alternative energy There is no shortage of alternative sources, including oil sands, oil, coal-to-liquids, biofuels, and hydrogen. Among these unconventional fossil carbon would produce less fuels most compatible the existing transport infrastructure, but to increased carbon emissions agreement, medium evidence).

In the transport sector produced 6.3 2 emissions (23% of world CO 2 emissions) and its growth rate is among the end-user sectors. transport currently accounts for 74% of transport CO 2 emissions. The share of countries is 36% now and will increase to 46% by 2030 if current trends (high agreement, much . The transport sector also small amounts of CH 4 and N 2 O emissions fuel combustion and F-gases gases) from vehicle air CH 4 emissions are between 0.10.3% of transport GHG emissions, N 2 O between 2.0 and (based on US, Japan and EU data Worldwide emissions of F-gases in 2003 were 0.30.6 2 -eq, about 510% of transport CO 2 emissions (medium limited evidence).

When mitigation options it is important to their lifecycle GHG impacts. is especially true for choices alternative fuels but also to a lesser degree to the manufacturing and materials composition of advanced Electricity and hydrogen can offer the to ‘de-carbonise’ the transport energy although the actual full carbon reduction depends the way electricity and hydrogen are produced. of mitigation potential in the transport through the year 2030 is because the potential depends on:

oil supply and its impact on fuel and the economic viability of alternative fuels;

RD outcomes in several areas, biomass fuel production and its sustainability in massive scale, as as battery longevity, cost and energy.

Another problem for a assessment is the limited number and of available studies of mitigation and cost.

Improving energy offers an excellent opportunity for GHG mitigation through 2030. emissions from ‘new’ road vehicles could be by upto 50% by 2030 compared to produced models, assuming technological advances and strong to ensure that technologies are to increasing fuel economy than spent on increased and vehicle mass. Material and advanced design could the weight of light-duty vehicles by Since the IPCC Third Report — Climate 2001 (TAR), energy of road vehicles has improved by the success of cleaner direct turbocharged (TDI) diesels and the market penetration of numerous efficiency technologies. Hybrid have also played a though their market is currently small. Reductions in coefficients of 2050% seem for heavy intercity trucks, consequent reductions in fuel use of Hybrid technology is applicable to and buses that operate in environments, and the diesel engine’s may be improved by 10% or more. Prospects for are strongly dependent on the advancement of technologies.

There are also opportunities to increase the operating of transport vehicles. Road efficiency might be improved by through strategies such as styles, increased load improved maintenance, in-vehicle aids, more efficient tyres, reduced idling and traffic management and route (medium agreement, medium

The total mitigation potential in of the energy efficiency options to light duty vehicles be around 0.70.8GtCO 2 -eq in 2030 at 100 US$/tCO 2 . Data is not sufficient to a similar estimate for heavy-duty The use of current and advanced biofuels give an additional reduction of another 6001500 MtCO 2 -eq in at costs 25 US$/tCO 2 (low limited evidence).

Although transport is one of the most energy modes today, substantial for further efficiency improvements Reduced aerodynamic drag, train weight, regenerative and higher efficiency propulsion can make significant reductions in energy use. Shipping, one of the least energy intensive still has some potential for energy efficiency. Studies both technical and operational have concluded that efficiency opportunities of a few percent to up to 40% are (medium agreement, medium

Passenger jet aircraft produced are 70% more fuel efficient the equivalent aircraft produced 40 ago and continued improvement is expected. A 20% over 1997 aircraft is likely by 2015 and possibly 40 to 50% is anticipated by 2050. Still efficiency gains will on the potential of novel designs as the blended wing body, or systems such as the unducted For 2030 the estimated mitigation is 150MtCO 2 at carbon prices than 50 US$/tCO 2 and 280 MtCO 2 at prices less than 100 2 (medium agreement, medium . However, without policy projected annual improvements in fuel efficiency of the order of will be surpassed by annual growth of around 5% each leading to an annual increase of CO 2 of 34% per year (high agreement, evidence).

Biofuels have the to replace a substantial part but not all use by transport. A recent International Agency (IEA) analysis that biofuels’ share of fuel could increase to 10% in 2030. The economic potential in from biofuel application is at 6001500 MtCO 2 -eq/yr at of 25 US$/tCO 2 -eq. The introduction of vehicles able to use any mixture of [2] and ethanol rejuvenated the market for as a motor fuel in Brazil by motorists from wide in the price of either fuel. The potential for biofuels will on the success of technologies to utilise biomass (medium agreement, evidence).

Providing public systems and their related and promoting non-motorised transport can to GHG mitigation. However, local determine how much transport can be to less energy intensive Occupancy rates and primary sources of the transport mode determine the mitigation impact. The requirements for urban transport are influenced by the density and spatial of the built environment, as well as by extent and nature of transport If the share of buses in passenger in typical Latin American would increase by 510%, CO 2 emissions could go down by 49% at of the order of 6070 US$/tCO 2 agreement, limited evidence).

The few worldwide assessments of transport’s GHG potential completed since the TAR that significant reductions in the 80% increase in transport GHG emission by will require both advances intechnology and implementation via comprehensive policies (medium limited evidence).

The mitigation by 2030 for the transport sector is to be about 16002550 MtCO 2 for a price less than 100 2 . This is only a partial based on biofuel use throughout the sector and efficiency improvements in vehicles and aircraft and does not the potential for heavy-duty vehicles, transport, shipping, and modal change and public transport and is therefore an underestimation. Much of potential appears to be located in North America and Europe. potential is measured as the further in CO 2 emissions from a Reference which already assumes a use of biofuels and significant improvements in uel based on a continuation of current This estimate of mitigation and potentials is highly uncertain. remains a critical need for and consistent assessments of the worldwide to mitigate transport’s GHG emissions agreement, limited evidence).

transport demand certainly to price signals, the demand for vehicle travel and fuel use are price inelastic. As a result, increases in prices or taxes are to make major changes in GHG Many countries do heavily tax fuels and have lower of fuel consumption and vehicle use countries with low fuel (high agreement, much

Fuel economy regulations been effective in slowing the of GHG emissions, but so far growth of transport has overwhelmed their impact. have been adopted by developed economies as well as key economies, though in widely form, from uniform, corporate average standards, to standards by vehicle weight or size, to voluntary industry-wide The overall effectiveness of standards can be enhanced if combined with incentives and consumer information agreement, medium evidence).

A wide array of transport management (TDM) strategies been employed in different around the world, primarily to traffic congestion and reduce air TDMs can be effective in reducing vehicle travel if rigorously and supported (high agreement, low

In order to reduce emissions air and marine transport resulting the combustion of bunker fuels, new frameworks need to be developed. the International Civil Aviation (ICAO) endorsed the concept of an international emission trading for the air transport sector, implemented a voluntary scheme, or incorporation of aviation into existing trading systems. Environmentally port dues are being in a few places. Other policies to shipping emissions would be the of international shipping in international trading schemes, fuel and regulatory instruments (high much evidence).

Since available mitigation options probably not be enough to prevent in transport’s emissions, technology and development is essential in order to the potential for future, significant in transport GHG emissions. This amongst others, for hydrogen cell, advanced biofuel and improved batteries for electric and vehicles (high agreement, evidence).

The best choice of options will vary regions. Not only levels of development, but the nature of economic geography, population density and all influence the effectiveness and desirability of affecting modal choices, investments and transport demand measures (high agreement, evidence).

5.1 Introduction

Mobility is an human need. Human and societal interaction depend on the to move people and goods. mobility systems are essential of economic development. Cities not exist and global trade not occur without systems to people and goods cheaply and (WBCSD, 2002).

Since transport relies on oil for virtually all its and accounts for almost half of oil consumption, the transport sector a challenging future, given its on oil. In this chapter, and future options and potentials to greenhouse gases (GHG) are

GHG emission reduction will be one of several key issues in transport the coming decades and will not be the issue in many areas. In countries especially, increasing for private vehicles is out pacing the of transport infrastructure including road networks and public networks. The result is growing and air pollution, [3] and a rise in traffic Further, the predominant reliance on vehicles for passenger travel is substantial societal strains as disadvantaged populations are left out of the growth in mobility. In many concerns about transport likely focus on the local pollution, safety and equity The global warming issue in will have to be addressed in the of the broader goal of sustainable

5.2 Current status [4] and future

5.2.1 Transport today

The sector plays a crucial and role in world energy use and of GHGs. In 2004, transport use amounted to 26% of total world use and the transport sector was responsible for 23% of world energy-related GHG emissions 2006b). The 19902002 growth of energy consumption in the transport was highest among all the end-use Of a total of 77 EJ [5] of total transport use, road vehicles for more than three-quarters, light-duty vehicles and freight having the lion’s share Table 1). Virtually all (95%) of energy comes from fuels, largely diesel EJ, or about 31% of total energy) and (36.4 EJ, 47%). One consequence of dependence, coupled with the moderate differences in carbon of the various oil-based fuels, is the CO2 emissions from the different sub-sectors are approximately proportional to energy use (Figure 5.1).

5.1: World transport use in 2000, by mode


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